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April 04, 2007
Hurricane Predictor Predictably Predicts Hurricanes
First of all, why are we getting hurricane predictions from a team at Colorado State University? We don't (at least I hope we don't) rely on a team from Charleston, South Carolina, for ski reports.
But now my main point, which is that the annual forecast for hurricane season from CSU says it will be an active hurricane season.
Well, duh. Why is this news? OF COURSE they're going to say it's an active hurricane season. Let's look at what their choices are:
| THEY PREDICT AN ACTIVE SEASON | THEY PREDICT A CALM SEASON | |
| IT IS AN ACTIVE SEASON | "We called it! We're the hurricane masters! Here are our 2008 budget demands!" |
"Well...who saw that coming? We were surprised, too. We're really sorry, Savannah." |
| IT IS A CALM SEASON | "Well, we dodged a bullet. Next year's going to be doubly crazy, though. Here are our 2008 budget suggestions." |
"You're cutting our budget?" |
See, you can't really lose if you stay in the left column, and you can't really win if you stay in the right column. So be suspicious of vague, ill-informed predictions like the hurricane forecast and anything I may say about Major League Baseball.
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